Medifast (NASDAQ: MED): Like Lumber Liquidators, But With Undisclosed Toxic Metals, and A Supply Chain Twist PART I

September 20, 2018



  • 21% to 74% of Optavia products contain contaminants.

  • Optavia prices will decline, as prices are 2x-4x more expensive than peers’ products & programs.

  • Nearly all Optavia products are not manufactured by the company, contradicting claims otherwise.

  • MED will be required to add warning labels to its products.

  • MED’s Optavia products (its “Fuelings”) will require recalls and/or third-party testing.

  • Shares will decline 62%-86% the current prices




  • 85% of Optavia samples tested by a leading lab exceeded the maximum allowable dose level for lead, per Prop. 65.

  • 23% of the Optavia samples tested exceeded FDA maximum daily intake levels for lead.

  • The Optavia products we had tested contained higher levels of toxic metals than 93% of 133 best-selling protein powder products tested by the Clean Label Project.

  • The average Optavia products tested contain higher lead levels than all 283 everyday foods tested by the FDA.

  • A 2008 Lab test detected similar levels of lead in MED products, implying the problem has remained for 10 years.

  • Medifast R&D + capex spend as % of revenue is less than half of its peers, suggesting underinvestment.

  • A former FDA official informed us that toxic metals in foods is an issue of interest to the FDA, especially when the agency has specific cause for concern.

  • MED claims all its powders are made by the company, yet Optavia labels state “manufactured for Optavia”

  • Optavia products claim “Made in the USA”, yet we have evidence that the unqualified claim is false.

  • The # of FDA citations for Nellson LLC & Hearthside Food solution is very concerning. Both are believed to be among MED’s largest contract manufacturers.

  • Optavia diet ranked poorly in the 2018 US NEWS Best Diets Rankings (ranked only 29th of 40).


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