The Truth about TPL, Horizon, and the Asset/Liability Mismatch
GOTHAM CITY RESEARCH’S OPINIONS
TPL stock is up over 4x since 2019 due to forced, price insensitive buyers and misplaced confidence in Horizon.
TPL business is inflecting into a lower quality, capital intensive business with less growth and lower ROICs.
We believe shares will approach $361-$440 per share, implying 53%-61% downside vs current price.
SUMMARY OF THE BASES OF OPINIONS
TPL stock was up ~100x from 2002-2019, tracking EPS growth, which also grew ~100x. From 2019-2024, however, EPS only grew 1.4x, yet the stock, 4.2x.
TPL was an ‘index ineligible trust’. Horizon led a campaign to change TPL’s corporate form and succeeded. TPL, thus, became an index eligible corp as of 2021.
Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street - Price insensitive, forced buyers of the stock – increased their combined ownership of TPL stock from <1% in 2020 to 24%, 2025.
Form 4 filings give the appearance that Horizon Kinetics and its CIO Murray Stahl – a board member of TPL – are steady and consistent buyers of TPL stock.
Horizon Kinetics funds have actually been massive sellers of TPL stock since 2019. We calculate that their TPL position has declined by -34% since the end of 2018.
Horizon’s TPL position represents ~40% of its equity, and over 30x TPL ADV. We believe Horizon is smart and therefore will continue to sell TPL stock, for risk management purposes.
TPL claims to be a ‘growth-oriented enterprise’ yet its employee count has barely grown since 2020.
A former TPL employee – in charge of data center business development – believes data centers will be worth at most a few million dollars per year in land lease.
TPL spent $471 million on acquiring assets in 2024.
TPL spent more in 2024 on acquisitions, than they did in the previous 22 years (2002-2023) - combined.
In 2024, TPL purchased oil and gas interests for $34,107 per NRA. Historically their purchases averaged $11,000/NRA.
TPL’s has purchased and sold land for $2,569-$2,855 per acre (on a weighted avg basis) over the last 8 years, yet TPL’s market cap per acre is over $25,000 per acre.
TPL paid for stock promotion ads in 2024. This is not behavior we expect to see in a S&P 500 constituent.
Karl Kurz is a member of the TPL Board, since April 15, 2022. Kurz’s TPL bio fails to mention that he was on BoD of Royal Helium – a Canadian penny stock promote until May.
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Excellent deep‑dive research report! You effectively highlight the disconnect between TPL’s share‑price run‑up and fundamental business shifts, backed by factual filing‑based evidence. Material like this is incredibly helpful for investors seeking balanced, alternative perspectives amid market hype. Great work delivering this sharp independent market analysis. --addition
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